Sign in

Oatly Group (OTLY)

OTLY Q2 2025: Greater China Carve-Out Review to Unlock Value

Reported on Jul 23, 2025 (Before Market Open)
Pre-Earnings Price$15.23Last close (Jul 22, 2025)
Post-Earnings Price$14.38Open (Jul 23, 2025)
Price Change
$-0.85(-5.58%)
  • Unlocking Growth in Greater China: The strategic review of its Greater China business, including potential carve-out options, indicates management’s focus on unlocking value and accelerating future growth.
  • North America Upside with Proven Strategies: Despite headwinds, management’s confidence in deploying its successful European growth playbook in North America suggests significant potential for recovery and market share gains.
  • Discipline in Cost Management: The emphasis on additional corporate SG&A savings and cost-efficient initiatives supports margin improvement and healthier adjusted EBITDA, reinforcing a stronger financial outlook.
  • Greater China Uncertainty: The management initiated a strategic review of its Greater China business, considering options like a potential carve-out. This uncertainty over strategic outcomes could unsettle investors and affect overall business cohesion.
  • North American Underperformance: Management acknowledged that North American results were below expectations, with significant challenges such as customer sourcing shifts and SKU rationalization affecting performance. This underperformance raises concerns about sustainable growth in a key market.
  • Category and Consumer Challenges: Concerns were raised about declining penetration and the challenges of changing consumer behavior, particularly around taste and protein perceptions, which might limit long-term volume growth despite innovation efforts.
MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

Constant Currency Revenue Growth

FY 2025

2% to 4%

approximately flat to +1%

lowered

Adjusted EBITDA

FY 2025

positive $5 million to $50 million

reaffirmed guidance in the range of $5 million to $15 million

lowered

CapEx

FY 2025

$30 million to $35 million

approximately $20 million

lowered

Economic and Consumer Conditions

FY 2025

Assumes that current economic conditions and consumer behaviors remain largely consistent for FY 2025

Assumes that current economic conditions and consumer behavior will remain largely consistent for the rest of the year

no change

Foreign Exchange Impact

FY 2025

no prior guidance

Estimated to be an approximately 150 basis point tailwind for the full year

no prior guidance

Gross Profit Dollars

FY 2025

no prior guidance

Expected to improve in the second half of the year compared to the first half

no prior guidance

SG&A Savings

FY 2025

no prior guidance

Additional savings identified, primarily from corporate expenses, with impacts starting in Q3 and growing into Q4

no prior guidance

TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

Greater China Strategic Review & Potential Carve-Out

Not mentioned in Q1 2025, Q4 2024, or Q3 2024

In Q2 2025, Oatly introduced a strategic review and potential carve-out for its Greater China business, aiming to accelerate growth and maximize value

New topic emerged

North American Market Performance & Execution

Consistently discussed in Q1 2025, Q4 2024, and Q3 2024 – highlighting growth in segments, significant revenue improvements, and challenges like sourcing strategy shifts; Q1 noted headwinds and incremental opportunities

In Q2 2025, the discussion continued with mixed signals: lower-than-expected results compounded by sourcing headwinds and SKU issues, yet record quarterly retail sales and strong foodservice performance were reported

Consistent focus with mixed sentiment; challenges persist but with record sales highlights

Cost Management & Margin Improvement Strategies

Q1 2025, Q4 2024, and Q3 2024 outlined robust efforts: aggressive cost efficiencies, SG&A reductions, supply chain optimizations and significant margin expansions through production footprint reviews and improved input sourcing

Q2 2025 maintained the focus with continued cost reductions (e.g., 10% reduction in cost per liter), SG&A savings, and a 330 basis point gross margin expansion driven by supply chain and pricing mix benefits

Consistently positive – emphasis on efficiency and improved margins remains strong

Distribution Expansion & Market Share Growth Initiatives

Discussed across Q1 2025, Q4 2024, and Q3 2024. Previous calls emphasized expansion in channels, market share gains, success in retail and foodservice, and innovative product launches driving consumer adoption

Q2 2025 highlighted strong double-digit revenue growth in Europe and International markets, continued expansion into new distribution channels (including a playbook rollout in North America), and solid growth figures like 40% YOY in expansion markets

Consistent growth strategy; continued expansion with favorable market reception and playbook rollout

Consumer Behavior & Category Dynamics

Q1 2025 emphasized significant potential (e.g., 82% U.S. consumers yet to try oat milk) and noted category softness; Q4 2024 detailed sluggish category growth, taste misperceptions, and misinformation challenges; Q3 2024 focused on consumer engagement and overcoming reluctance through targeted marketing

Q2 2025 discussed a soft North American consumer environment similar to past challenges, while noting that Europe’s improvement offers a replicable model; taste remains the primary barrier but strategies are in place to overcome it, and strong foodservice performance in Greater China helps offset the weakness in retail

Recurring focus with persistent barriers yet gradual optimism drawn from European success

Customer Sourcing & SKU Rationalization Challenges

Q1 2025 detailed sourcing shifts at a major North American foodservice customer and SKU rationalization in the frozen portfolio; Q4 2024 also addressed sourcing changes and product mix optimization efforts. Q3 2024 did not mention these challenges

Q2 2025 continued to report issues with a major customer’s sourcing strategy and further challenges from SKU rationalization in the frozen product line, directly impacting North American performance

A recurring challenge that continues to impact revenue growth and operational execution

Pricing, Mix Pressures & Revenue Growth Guidance Uncertainty

Q1 2025 noted an 8.5% decline in price/mix along with a 1.5% FX headwind, while Q4 2024’s discussion included the impact of a large customer sourcing change resulting in a 300 basis point headwind; Q3 2024 mentioned mix improvements and a refined revenue outlook with controlled pressures

In Q2 2025, Oatly reported a 3% decline in price mix, adjustments in guidance (constant currency revenue expected to be flat to +1%), combined with FX factors affecting full-year outlook; challenges remain while attempting to mitigate mix pressures by reallocating product focus

Consistently under pressure; revenue outlook uncertainty persists with slight adjustments in guidance

  1. China Review
    Q: Why review Greater China now?
    A: Management believes the Greater China business is now leaner and stronger after recent resets, making it an ideal time to explore options—including a potential carve out—to unlock shareholder value.

  2. North America Turnaround
    Q: Why is North America flat and next plan?
    A: They noted that North America’s flat performance stems from sourcing shifts and customer issues, and they plan to deploy the proven growth playbook from Europe to boost distribution and consumer engagement.

  3. Category Challenges
    Q: Is protein content harming US demand?
    A: Management emphasized that while protein is a value topic, oat milk penetration remains steady and taste remains the key hurdle, so they will focus on taste innovation to drive demand.

  4. Cost Savings
    Q: Where will SG&A savings come from?
    A: They detailed that incremental SG&A savings will mostly come from corporate-driven initiatives like centralizing contracts and professional contract negotiations, ensuring efficiency without sacrificing growth.

Research analysts covering Oatly Group.